Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112022 220210 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.20    168.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  22.1  20.3  19.9  29.0  59.2  72.7  79.6  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 100.1  89.4  81.6  53.0  43.2  18.4  21.9  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0 -43.0 -32.0   9.0  52.0 134.0  66.0  36.0 VU VU VU  U  N VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  67.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  55.0  43.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  10.0   3.0  11.0  13.0  10.0  66.0 235.0  N  U  N  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.1%       18.5%       19.8%
 25kt / 24h       20.9%       35.2%       28.1%
 30kt / 24h       20.9%       28.2%       24.6%
 35kt / 24h       20.9%       28.2%       24.6%
 40kt / 24h        4.4%       26.8%       15.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       20.9%       12.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.8%        5.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%