Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112022 220210 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.20    167.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  18.8  19.8  23.1  45.6  68.0  72.3  81.2  F  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.1  84.4  71.2  56.5  42.9  16.2  16.9   6.7  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -44.0 -16.0   4.0  20.0  74.0 135.0  -9.0   7.0 VU  U  U  U  N VF  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  63.0  48.0  42.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   7.0  23.0  14.0   8.0  32.0 159.0 225.0  U  N VU  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       27.7%       23.8%       25.8%
 25kt / 24h       19.5%       28.4%       24.0%
 30kt / 24h       19.5%       23.3%       21.4%
 35kt / 24h       19.5%       23.3%       21.4%
 40kt / 24h        4.0%       21.7%       12.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%       11.2%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.1%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons