Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112022 220210 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.00    166.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  17.3  22.8  33.7  64.0  73.3  76.8  80.6  F  F  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.4  58.0  40.0  31.7  14.7  -2.3   5.8  -7.2  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0  22.0  26.0  56.0 116.0  57.0  38.0  61.0 VU  U  U  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  58.0  46.0  42.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   9.0  11.0  29.0  19.0  71.0 289.0 108.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.6%       41.9%       53.8%
 25kt / 24h       33.5%       27.7%       30.6%
 30kt / 24h       33.5%       26.9%       30.2%
 35kt / 24h       33.5%       26.9%       30.2%
 40kt / 24h        9.7%       24.1%       16.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons