Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122022 220213 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90     60.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     34.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  20.1  20.9  21.9  27.2  28.8  35.9  32.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  45.0  47.0  49.0  55.0  54.0  50.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 117.9 122.3 115.7 101.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  37.0  15.0  30.0  13.0  13.0  64.0  23.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  60.0  59.0  63.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        2.5%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%       18.7%       12.3%
 30kt / 24h        5.8%        7.4%        6.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.8%        7.2%        6.5%
 40kt / 24h        5.8%        7.2%        6.5%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%       17.5%       11.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        6.2%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        4.9%        3.8%        4.3%
 65kt / 72h        9.7%        6.2%        7.9%