Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122022 220213 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30     60.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     36.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  18.2  19.0  21.0  24.8  28.7  28.6  25.5  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  47.0  49.0  52.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 124.6 122.3 124.6 129.3 130.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  14.0  32.0  32.0  12.0  49.0  39.0  63.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  56.0  58.0  62.0  62.0  67.0  67.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        3.1%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%       20.8%       13.5%
 30kt / 24h        6.2%        8.7%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h        6.2%        8.4%        7.3%
 40kt / 24h        6.2%        8.4%        7.3%
 45kt / 36h        7.2%       21.4%       14.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.0%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        9.5%        8.7%        9.1%
 70kt / 48h        7.4%        5.4%        6.4%
 65kt / 72h       22.7%       14.4%       18.6%