Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122022 220213 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70     58.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  23.5  23.6  23.0  21.7  35.4  27.3  30.7  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  51.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  44.0  31.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        112.3 105.7 105.7 110.1 114.6 105.7  89.8 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  19.0  28.0  18.0  19.0  63.0  31.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  66.0  67.0  74.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -4.0   0.0  -1.0  -6.0  -4.0  -4.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.8%        9.3%        9.5%
 25kt / 24h       15.7%       32.6%       24.1%
 30kt / 24h       11.3%       19.2%       15.3%
 35kt / 24h       11.3%       18.9%       15.1%
 40kt / 24h       11.3%       18.9%       15.1%
 45kt / 36h       13.5%       37.1%       25.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       19.5%        9.8%
 55kt / 48h       10.3%       10.1%       10.2%
 70kt / 48h        6.4%        8.1%        7.2%
 65kt / 72h        7.4%       10.2%        8.8%