Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122022 220214 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10     56.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     95.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  24.7  27.0  23.3  34.3  30.1  35.6  33.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  48.0  43.0  53.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        107.9 107.9 112.3 112.3 112.3  88.0 117.0 119.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  15.0  18.0  -2.0  31.0  33.0  32.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  59.0  61.0  59.0  64.0  66.0  72.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.6%        7.7%        6.6%
 25kt / 24h       13.8%       33.2%       23.5%
 30kt / 24h        7.5%       22.1%       14.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.6%       22.1%       13.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       19.6%       11.0%
 45kt / 36h        7.0%       30.6%       18.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.9%        7.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.5%        7.1%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        4.9%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        6.6%        4.9%