Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122022 220214 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.50     55.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  22.1  20.4  19.9  28.8  25.1  30.9  31.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  55.0  53.0  50.0   0.0  64.0  54.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        107.3 114.3 115.0 114.3  35.9  88.5 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  17.0   4.0   2.0  52.0  36.0  23.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  60.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  62.0  67.0  72.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%        3.9%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h        9.8%       22.7%       16.3%
 30kt / 24h        8.2%       12.5%       10.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%       12.3%        8.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.8%       12.3%        8.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%        8.3%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        3.3%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        1.1%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        2.8%        3.0%