Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122022 220214 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.80     54.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  20.5  20.7  26.5  24.0  27.0  24.0  32.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  53.0  50.0  47.0   0.0  67.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        119.3 120.0 120.0 101.5  33.4  91.6 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N VU  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   4.0   2.0  34.0  33.0  41.0  23.0  85.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  58.0  55.0  56.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  F  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        6.2%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.6%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        0.3%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        0.3%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        5.6%        1.5%        3.5%