Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122022 220214 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.70     53.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  23.6  27.1  27.5  30.9  25.8  28.1  30.5  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  52.0  46.0  43.0  63.0  52.0  70.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        119.3 117.0 110.1  93.5 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   5.0  19.0  42.0  37.0  21.0  35.0  68.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  61.0  63.0  62.0  68.0  71.0  76.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -8.0  -7.0 -15.0 -13.0  -9.0  -9.0   0.0  F  F  F VF VF  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.2%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        8.8%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        4.0%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.3%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.3%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        5.7%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        3.2%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        1.3%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        8.1%        5.5%        6.8%