Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122022 220215 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.70     52.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  27.0  28.0  32.8  33.9  30.2  30.4  26.4  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  47.0  41.0  57.0  46.0  62.0  60.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        114.6 105.7  88.0 119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0 110.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  35.0  42.0  16.0  19.0   3.0  55.0  58.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  65.0  65.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  75.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -7.0 -13.0 -11.0  -2.0  -5.0  -1.0  -2.0  F  F VF  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.9%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        7.4%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        3.1%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        5.7%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        2.5%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        4.3%        3.9%