Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122022 220215 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.90     50.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  23.8  24.9  23.9  22.0  21.6  19.1  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0  71.0  64.0  52.0  47.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         53.2  34.2  64.4  86.2 120.0 120.0  73.0  47.7  U VU  U  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  56.0  43.0  13.0  34.0  40.0  82.0  48.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  68.0  71.0  76.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -7.0  -9.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.1%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%        2.4%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        1.8%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        2.8%        2.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons