Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122022 220215 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.20     48.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  21.2  20.7  19.0  17.4  14.6  16.8  21.6  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  72.0  68.0  55.0  67.0  29.0   8.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.6 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 113.6  78.6  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  45.0  46.0  16.0  54.0  79.0  51.0  51.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -7.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        3.9%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%        3.2%        4.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        1.5%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h       18.7%        5.8%       12.3%