Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122022 220216 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10     47.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  19.2  19.0  13.3  14.0  15.4  24.3  21.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  68.0  54.0  74.0  38.0  23.0  52.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6  88.0  88.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  34.0  23.0  48.0  50.0  54.0  57.0  66.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  71.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.3%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%        7.6%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h       11.9%        6.2%        9.1%
 70kt / 48h        7.7%        2.6%        5.2%
 65kt / 72h       24.2%        6.5%       15.4%