Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122022 220216 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00     46.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  19.8  14.0  10.4  14.4  16.7  17.6  17.3  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  63.0  54.0  45.0  49.0  57.0  47.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        111.6 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 139.3 101.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0   1.0  -3.0   7.0  24.0  38.0  36.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  60.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -6.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        6.3%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        7.8%        4.2%        6.0%
 70kt / 48h        7.3%        2.4%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h       37.0%       13.3%       25.2%