Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122022 220216 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.70     44.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  16.3  15.0  17.1  15.0  23.3  17.5  26.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  61.0  52.0  53.0  59.0  48.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 127.9  93.0  74.3  76.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  40.0  45.0  57.0  59.0  67.0  28.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  61.0  70.0  69.0  71.0  70.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%       12.7%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        4.2%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.5%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        3.5%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%       19.1%       11.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.1%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h       16.0%        7.0%       11.5%
 70kt / 48h       14.5%        5.2%        9.9%
 65kt / 72h       17.4%        7.1%       12.3%