Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220217 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.20     67.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  22.0  26.1  20.5  30.1  35.9  41.3  50.1  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  42.0  40.0  39.0  42.0  42.0  43.0  43.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0 120.0 117.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  67.0  10.0  13.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  57.0  52.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   6.0  -1.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.9%       13.5%       14.7%
 25kt / 24h       39.9%       56.6%       48.2%
 30kt / 24h       23.1%       41.7%       32.4%
 35kt / 24h       17.7%       41.7%       29.7%
 40kt / 24h       14.5%       40.7%       27.6%
 45kt / 36h       25.2%       53.8%       39.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       31.6%       15.8%
 55kt / 48h       12.9%       19.6%       16.3%
 70kt / 48h        4.2%       12.6%        8.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        7.4%        5.2%