Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220217 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.00     65.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     97.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  30.3  28.7  29.9  32.5  32.2  32.1  35.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  42.0  41.0  39.0  27.0  28.0  24.0  14.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 103.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  39.0  31.0  63.0  47.0   9.0  -1.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  65.0  63.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.0%       11.4%       11.2%
 25kt / 24h       26.3%       47.2%       36.7%
 30kt / 24h       14.6%       34.6%       24.6%
 35kt / 24h       14.6%       34.6%       24.6%
 40kt / 24h        3.4%       31.3%       17.4%
 45kt / 36h       11.8%       40.1%       25.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       20.3%       10.2%
 55kt / 48h        7.0%       15.0%       11.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        8.1%        4.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        8.3%        4.5%