Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220217 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.80     63.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     95.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  29.5  30.6  26.8  29.6  28.8  21.2  20.5  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  37.0  32.0  29.0  28.0  18.0  12.0  13.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  90.7  80.5  78.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  73.0  56.0  37.0  66.0  21.0  30.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  63.0  60.0  58.0  53.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       42.9%       27.3%       35.1%
 25kt / 24h       50.3%       62.8%       56.5%
 30kt / 24h       43.2%       58.3%       50.7%
 35kt / 24h       43.2%       58.3%       50.7%
 40kt / 24h       18.7%       54.6%       36.7%
 45kt / 36h       25.7%       44.7%       35.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       25.3%       12.7%
 55kt / 48h        8.4%       17.2%       12.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        7.9%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        6.7%        4.0%