Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220218 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.40     63.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     84.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  34.8  34.8  29.4  28.0  23.1  28.9  22.7  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  42.0  42.0  44.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0  91.5  85.5  85.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  56.0  38.0  24.0  23.0  15.0  56.0  81.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  63.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%        4.7%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h       12.7%       24.3%       18.5%
 30kt / 24h        5.9%       15.3%       10.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.5%       15.3%       10.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       13.6%        7.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       14.0%       10.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.7%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        7.5%        6.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        4.2%        4.4%        4.3%