Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220218 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.00     62.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  23.6  25.8  26.0  25.7  24.3  18.4  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  42.0  44.0  45.0  44.0  47.0  48.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  87.9  75.5  75.5  75.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  78.0  46.0  50.0   1.0  36.0   4.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  57.0  59.0  55.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -1.0  -1.0  -6.0  -8.0  -1.0  -1.0   5.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       56.1%       37.0%       46.5%
 25kt / 24h       64.9%       73.2%       69.0%
 30kt / 24h       58.1%       71.7%       64.9%
 35kt / 24h       58.1%       71.7%       64.9%
 40kt / 24h       33.7%       68.8%       51.3%
 45kt / 36h       35.8%       52.0%       43.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       33.0%       16.5%
 55kt / 48h       15.4%       21.7%       18.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%       11.7%        8.2%
 65kt / 72h        5.6%       11.4%        8.5%