Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220218 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40     61.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  28.0  28.4  25.5  19.9  20.0  23.1  25.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  44.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  48.0  49.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  89.3  69.4  63.5  65.5  65.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  39.0  62.0  53.0   9.0  23.0 -29.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  59.0  61.0  60.0  62.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -7.0  -5.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       71.2%       43.7%       57.4%
 25kt / 24h       75.2%       75.1%       75.1%
 30kt / 24h       75.2%       75.1%       75.1%
 35kt / 24h       75.2%       75.1%       75.1%
 40kt / 24h       47.5%       72.4%       60.0%
 45kt / 36h       39.8%       47.0%       43.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       29.2%       14.6%
 55kt / 48h       13.6%       18.4%       16.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%