Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220218 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40     60.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  25.6  26.2  24.1  19.3  16.5  11.3  11.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  43.0  44.0  43.0  46.0  46.0  42.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  92.0  87.3  76.5  68.5  70.5  70.5  66.6  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  79.0  49.0  38.0  35.0  38.0  71.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  57.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  51.0  50.0  52.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.7%       15.7%       18.2%
 25kt / 24h       33.6%       40.7%       37.2%
 30kt / 24h       22.1%       34.6%       28.4%
 35kt / 24h       21.5%       34.6%       28.1%
 40kt / 24h       10.4%       32.4%       21.4%
 45kt / 36h       17.1%       19.3%       18.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.1%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h       10.0%        8.7%        9.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h       15.6%        6.4%       11.0%