Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220219 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00     58.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  26.0  25.3  24.8  25.0  18.1  14.9  23.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  44.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  46.0  42.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  85.1  76.5  70.5  68.5  72.4  68.5  66.6  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  30.0  22.0  49.0   1.0   0.0  -9.0  10.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   8.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.2%       10.5%       13.9%
 25kt / 24h       20.0%       25.4%       22.7%
 30kt / 24h       15.2%       18.1%       16.7%
 35kt / 24h       12.9%       18.1%       15.5%
 40kt / 24h        8.2%       17.4%       12.8%
 45kt / 36h        8.6%        9.1%        8.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.1%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%        3.5%        3.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%