Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220219 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60     58.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  24.6  23.9  23.6  19.8  10.5  23.1  25.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  44.0  45.0  46.0  46.0  44.0  38.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.9  74.4  68.5  66.6  70.5  70.5  66.6  64.8  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  22.0  48.0  14.0   0.0  -2.0  30.0  66.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  57.0  61.0  60.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0  22.0  10.0  F  F  F  F  F  N VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.6%       11.1%       13.9%
 25kt / 24h       18.2%       24.3%       21.3%
 30kt / 24h       13.6%       18.8%       16.2%
 35kt / 24h       13.4%       18.8%       16.1%
 40kt / 24h        5.7%       17.1%       11.4%
 45kt / 36h        8.5%       12.4%       10.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.1%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%        4.7%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%