Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220219 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.90     57.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  18.3  17.7  21.3  18.9  12.5  21.6  32.3  N  F  F  N  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  46.0  42.0  37.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.4  50.5  48.5  50.5  50.5  46.6  46.6  44.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  57.0  44.0  24.0  34.0  31.0  30.0  38.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  64.0  65.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0   4.0  22.0  44.0  N  N  N  F  F  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       60.6%       22.0%       41.3%
 25kt / 24h       33.9%       31.2%       32.6%
 30kt / 24h       32.3%       26.0%       29.1%
 35kt / 24h       32.3%       26.0%       29.1%
 40kt / 24h       20.7%       24.4%       22.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons