Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220220 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.20     56.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  20.6  26.6  25.7  23.8  22.5  26.6  38.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  47.0  48.0  48.0  44.0  40.0  32.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.5  35.5  35.5  37.4  33.5  31.6  29.8  21.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  20.0  18.0  30.0   9.0  47.0  49.0  49.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  58.0  62.0  61.0  65.0  68.0  60.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0  -7.0  18.0  29.0  15.0  N  N  F  F  F VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       46.7%       13.7%       30.2%
 25kt / 24h       15.9%       12.8%       14.4%
 30kt / 24h       14.7%        8.3%       11.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons