Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220220 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40     55.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  24.6  26.0  25.9  21.0  30.2  40.0  38.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  49.0  48.0  46.0  42.0  37.0  32.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.5  37.4  39.4  39.4  31.6  31.6  17.7 -28.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  17.0  33.0  39.0  26.0  37.0  62.0  47.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  61.0  59.0  64.0  67.0  62.0  58.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -6.0  -5.0   0.0   8.0 -21.0 -22.0  N  F  F  F  N  U VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       27.8%        8.4%       18.1%
 25kt / 24h       11.0%        9.0%       10.0%
 30kt / 24h       10.8%        5.4%        8.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons