Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220220 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.60     55.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  25.3  27.5  22.1  23.8  28.6  37.4  39.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  49.0  48.0  46.0  39.0  38.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.4  29.4  29.4  25.5  23.5   7.7 -37.4   1.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  30.0  49.0  58.0  50.0  77.0  49.0  79.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.5  60.0  64.0  68.0  72.0  69.0  70.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.5   0.0  10.0  23.0  22.0 -16.0 -33.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.9%        0.0%        6.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons