Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220221 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.70     54.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  21.8  25.1  22.0  27.2  33.7  41.5  46.4  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  48.0  45.0  41.0  38.0   0.0  10.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.4  39.4  35.5  35.5  31.6  11.5  60.0  22.7  U  U  U  U VU VU  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  71.0  39.0  50.0  73.0  78.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  68.0  69.0  72.0  69.0  72.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   9.0  16.0  20.0  49.0  24.0  -9.0  35.0  N  U  U VU VU VU  F VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.8%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.3%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons