Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220221 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.90     53.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  22.0  23.5  26.3  33.9  36.9  43.4  43.5  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  46.0  41.0  38.0  35.0   0.0  16.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.5  40.5  38.5  38.5  21.1 -27.9  19.6  15.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  37.0  28.0  47.0  74.0  73.0  83.0 108.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  67.0  66.0  64.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  21.0  32.0  44.0   9.0 -26.0 -22.0  31.0  N VU VU VU  U VF VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.3%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.2%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons