Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220221 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20     52.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  25.7  28.6  33.4  35.0  41.7  44.4  55.4  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  43.0  40.0  38.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         42.4  40.5  40.5  31.2 -15.9  -0.7  16.5  13.6  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  34.0  46.0  78.0  71.0  78.0  81.0 119.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  68.0  70.0  69.0  74.0  72.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  34.0  43.0  42.0   8.0 -31.0  30.0  16.0  N VU VU VU  U VF VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        1.4%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        1.9%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons