Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220222 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.60     49.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  23.0  21.0  27.5  35.2  40.6  58.3  71.9  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  17.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  15.7   1.9   8.3  52.7  38.6  34.4  26.7  U VU VU VU  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  70.0  47.0  78.0  54.0 154.0 129.0 157.0  N  N  N  N  N VF  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  67.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  64.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  24.0  12.0 -17.0  10.0   9.0  -1.0  -5.0  N VU  U VF  U  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons