Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220222 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.60     48.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  19.4  25.7  30.8  33.3  50.3  62.1  77.7  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   3.0  16.0  12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         26.7  15.7  56.2  90.0  51.0  44.6  34.4  14.7 VU VU  U  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  45.0  62.0  48.0  90.0 117.0 121.0  94.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  65.0  67.0  65.0  63.0  58.0  54.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  -6.0 -24.0 -21.0  -3.0  -5.0  -2.0 -16.0  U  F VF VF  N  F  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.6%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        1.8%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons