Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220223 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.60     47.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  25.0  30.2  32.0  34.5  57.1  72.3  84.4  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   6.0  16.0  14.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         26.7 100.0 100.0  79.4  54.6  51.5  37.9  21.8 VU  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  64.0  34.0  43.0  98.0 106.0  95.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  63.0  62.0  66.0  63.0  61.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -21.0  -5.0  -5.0  -6.0  -9.0 -16.0 -13.0  F VF  F  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.6%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons