Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220223 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.60     46.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  33.7  34.1  30.7  48.4  55.4  82.4  73.3  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  17.0  14.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.6  73.0  69.4  62.7  58.0  49.4  26.8  17.6  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  44.0  49.0  83.0  73.0 114.0  78.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  63.0  58.0  49.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -6.0  -7.0  -8.0 -19.0   0.0  -7.0   5.0 VF  F  F  F VF  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons