Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220223 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.10     45.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  32.1  29.4  35.0  51.8  69.0  79.0  77.9  U  U  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  16.0  13.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.4  79.8  71.0  64.6  61.5  36.7  24.2  21.2  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  46.0  58.0  75.0  82.0  85.0  54.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  62.0  57.0  53.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -26.0 -29.0 -15.0 -21.0 -33.0 -34.0 -46.0 -56.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons