Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220224 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.90     43.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  27.6  35.7  39.0  57.2  74.3  72.8  70.1  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.2  72.7  66.5  63.6  45.9  31.6  29.2  24.1  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  99.0  67.0  83.0 115.0  93.0  62.0 -26.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  68.0  70.0  61.0  53.0  47.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -10.0 -19.0 -11.0 -10.0 -35.0 -45.0 -68.0  F  F VF  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons