Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132022 220224 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -28.30     42.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.9  47.7  56.0  67.6  77.4  81.4  76.7  53.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         68.0  58.0  47.0  34.1  26.2  24.1  23.4  16.2  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  85.0 126.0 137.0  96.0  38.0 -24.0  32.0  N  F  F VF  F  N VU  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  54.0  46.0  40.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -1.0   0.0 -20.0 -21.0 -35.0 -20.0  -9.0  F  N  N VF VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons