Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142022 220226 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.70     89.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  22.6  23.7  23.5  22.1  22.4  28.0  33.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  46.0  45.0  37.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.6  49.3  49.3  49.3  50.0  50.0  50.0  49.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0  34.0  28.0  47.0  56.0  35.0  26.0  73.0  F  N  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  64.0  58.0  57.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0   1.0  -6.0  -1.0  -5.0 -15.0 -36.0  N  N  N  F  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       47.1%       10.5%       28.8%
 25kt / 24h       21.8%       16.0%       18.9%
 30kt / 24h       19.0%       10.0%       14.5%
 35kt / 24h       12.6%       10.0%       11.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%