Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142022 220228 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.80     87.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  27.0  28.2  37.8  41.2  33.0  46.7  51.0  N  N  N  U VU  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  35.0  31.0  23.0  16.0   9.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.6 117.0 120.0 120.0 110.1 107.9  89.8  93.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  75.0  78.0 102.0  78.0  49.0  33.0  50.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  55.0  49.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0 -12.0 -17.0 -19.0 -12.0 -14.0  N  N  F  F VF VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        2.5%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        6.4%       15.5%       10.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        6.9%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        6.6%        3.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        6.4%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%        7.1%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        2.3%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%