Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142022 220302 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.50     83.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  33.8  35.0  44.5  39.1  42.4  47.0  51.0  N  U  U VU  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.6  97.4  82.7  79.3  71.5  55.5  50.9  39.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  62.0  56.0  43.0  13.0  57.0  59.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  55.0  54.0  48.0  48.0  46.0  51.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -22.0 -23.0 -16.0 -34.0 -17.0 -13.0 -23.0 -10.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons