Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142022 220303 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.10     81.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.8  44.7  45.0  43.6  50.1  53.9  69.7  66.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  55.4  50.5  47.0  41.7  30.8  23.4  16.7  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  75.0  64.0  68.0  44.0  64.0  52.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  48.0  45.0  42.0  42.0  39.0  41.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -32.0 -35.0 -41.0 -41.0 -32.0 -22.0 -20.0 -22.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons