Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152022 220225 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.80    127.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  28.1  28.8  29.0  41.2  36.3  39.9  37.3  N  N  N  N VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   86.0  84.0  86.0  84.0  81.0  84.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  21.0  64.0  70.0  89.0 113.0  32.0  18.0  U  U  N  N  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0 -16.0  -5.0  -7.0 -13.0  N  N  F  F VF  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        5.9%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h       16.6%       35.9%       26.3%
 30kt / 24h        8.0%       20.0%       14.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.1%       18.5%       11.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       17.5%        9.4%
 45kt / 36h        9.2%       32.6%       20.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.3%        6.7%
 55kt / 48h       16.4%       14.0%       15.2%
 70kt / 48h        8.1%        9.9%        9.0%
 65kt / 72h       31.8%       21.4%       26.6%