Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152022 220226 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.30    127.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  25.4  31.4  29.3  20.3  27.2  23.3  25.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  62.0  44.0  86.0  81.0  74.0  68.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  45.0  55.0  40.0  75.0   7.0  25.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  67.0  69.0  70.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.0%       11.8%       11.4%
 25kt / 24h       26.7%       43.4%       35.0%
 30kt / 24h       16.6%       27.0%       21.8%
 35kt / 24h       12.2%       27.0%       19.6%
 40kt / 24h        5.0%       26.4%       15.7%
 45kt / 36h       22.5%       46.5%       34.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       24.8%       12.4%
 55kt / 48h       22.3%       25.4%       23.9%
 70kt / 48h       11.0%       15.1%       13.0%
 65kt / 72h       24.9%       26.9%       25.9%