Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152022 220227 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.60    126.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  26.3  33.8  29.9  23.0  31.9  29.8  35.2  N  N  U  N  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  24.0  37.0  62.0  49.0  77.0  79.0  81.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  64.0  54.0  35.0  26.0  -4.0  42.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   8.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        1.5%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h       24.1%        2.4%       13.3%