Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152022 220227 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.60    126.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  33.0  27.8  26.8  22.6  30.2  24.8  25.6  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  53.0  73.0  73.0  68.0  65.0  67.0  73.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        122.9 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  58.0  64.0  69.0  40.0  25.0  31.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -9.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.0%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        4.7%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        2.6%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.0%        1.3%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h       31.0%        8.7%       19.9%