Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152022 220227 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.00    126.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  26.6  20.5  17.2  25.8  25.8  23.9  24.5  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  17.0  37.0  26.0  31.0  77.0  80.0  81.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        101.2 110.5 127.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  17.0  21.0  39.0   4.0  17.0 -12.0  38.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  67.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   7.0   3.0  10.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.5%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%       11.6%        6.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.7%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.4%        4.5%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        3.5%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h       15.1%       12.8%       14.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons