Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152022 220227 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40    125.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  20.2  16.4  19.2  17.7  21.4  17.1  21.2  N  N  F  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  17.0  12.0  11.0  73.0  90.0  92.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        114.4 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  36.0  28.0  -3.0  25.0  36.0  11.0  62.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  59.0  61.0  57.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   6.0  11.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        7.6%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.5%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.5%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%       14.9%        8.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        8.9%        9.0%        9.0%
 70kt / 48h        5.9%        5.7%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h       32.9%       22.7%       27.8%