Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH152022 220228 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.70    125.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  17.4  20.3  18.1  16.7  18.9  18.6  35.5  F  F  N  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  12.0  12.0  12.0   7.0 109.0 115.0  98.0  U  U  U  U  U  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        129.6 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  24.0 -13.0  -7.0  10.0  -8.0  45.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  70.0  65.0  70.0  67.0  67.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   5.0   4.0   3.0  10.0  -1.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        8.7%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        3.4%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%       14.0%        7.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.7%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        9.5%        8.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        5.2%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h       23.1%       20.3%       21.7%